The Sumatra Trench Tsunami: Politics, Technologies and Opportunities
Warnings: communication Patterns
The possibility that any early warning and relief co-ordination system should be operated under the aegis of the United Nations might be considered but, more likely, it should merely be associated with such an initiative. First, the political evidence suggests that an organisation built of de jure regimes is not adequate to the task of working in places openly hostile to or de facto separated from de jure claimants. The current relief effort in Indonesia is being hampered because of the UN's insistence on routing all aid through a corrupt Government which uses the military to determine distribution strategy, deliberately excluding populations under rebel control or associated with rebels. Setting aside the question of whether such populations are willing collaborators, this model is too rigid and it is already threatening the autonomy of highly respected international civil society development assistance agencies. Secondly, as we have seen, warnings conveyed through state broadcasting are of limited use. It has never been widely respected in one party and tyrannical states and is being steadily discredited through informal diaspora news circulation via cellular telephones and the internet and through the spread of satellite 24-hour television news supplementing such radio networks as the BBC World Service. Thirdly, warnings within a limited time zone are of limited use, particularly if the disaster occurs in the middle of the night. When the earthquake erupted in the Sumatra Trench at 06.58 local time a warning to New York at mid evening local time, would have triggered thousands of messages back into the region; this might not have helped people very nearby but it would have been of some assistance to people only hit by the Tsunami an hour or more after the earthquake and who only needed to travel a very short distance to reach safety.
Any warning should be global, cross platform and multi channel. All broadcasting and telecommunications organisations should be enabled to register to receive all warnings above agreed levels of severity (e.g., Richter scale, hurricane wind speed).
The idea of global registration fits well with the interplay between indigenous populations and diaspora communities.
There is no doubt some danger of bogus warnings being issued to trigger civil unrest as a cover for criminal activity but this simply underlines the need for safe and trusted systems being used to pass messages to trusted intermediaries. Rumour is the child of uncertainty.
In summary, official warnings, under written by transparent and public criteria, should be issued globally to registered recipient controllers of broadcasting (including non state broadcasting) and telecommunications networks. All broadcasters should be enabled to register with the warning centre to receive warnings, including stations not licensed through the regulator of a de jure sovereign state. In the case of telecommunications the same overall rule of registration should apply but, in addition, any person should be entitled to and community leaders should be encouraged to register to receive automated warnings issued via telecoms networks. This is a proper subject for regulators in broadcasting and telecommunications but also a realm where latitude to non regulated entities, such as amateur radio hams, 'pirate' radio stations, should be generously exercised.